Will It Sell?TM
How to Determine If Your Invention Is Profitably Marketable
(Before Wasting Money on a Patent)

Marketing help for inventors and small businesses.

James E. White & Assoc.

STOP IF & THIN ICE Issues

The following STOP IF and THIN ICE issues are from STEP 0 - Go Shopping and provide the first part of a simple evaluation you can do yourself on your own invention (or a friends). The scoring system is slightly counter intuitive in that you rate your answer to each STOP IF issue from 0% to 100% with 0% meaning this issue has NO chance of preventing sales success and 100% meaning that your invention is CERTAIN to fail because of this issue. The THIN ICE issues are not scored, they are there to keep you alert to dangerous territory.

To see how you are doing on a project you simply complete each step's questions in step order and keep a running score for each step. At the end of STEP 0 your score is the sum of all answers for STEP 0. At the end of STEP 1 your score is the sum of all answers for STEPs 0 and 1, etc.

My suggestion for making your GO/NOGO decisions is that if your score at the end of any step is greater than 60% then you set that invention aside with a DO NOT RESUSCITATE order. If the score is 40% to 60% set the idea aside and let your subconscious work on it a while. For a 20% through 39%, get a second opinion. For a 5% through 19%, proceed with caution concentrating on the higher probability issues first. If your score is under 5%, proceed merrily on your way—but evaluate all new information to see if it changes your score.

1. You find your product already on the market!

2. You find a better product than yours on the market!

3. You find 3 or more products generally no better or worse than yours on the market!

4. Your solution works less than 90% of the time in solving the problem...

AND the solution is not considered technically difficult...

AND the solution does not have considerable savings over alternatives.

5. You are unwilling to honestly evaluate your product against competing solutions.

6. Your product could cause serious injury and you are not willing to accept that responsibility.

7. Your product or its manufacturing process could significantly degrade the environment.

A few comments on the above "STOP IF" issues, and some hints on scoring your self evaluation:

1. You find your product already on the market! It may not be totally what you had envisioned but it will have the fundamental elements. Does your concept have a unique feature that is currently missing? Do you see different styles or designs but otherwise no real differences? A new functional "feature" may still be patentable as your "invention."

0%—I looked in 4 department stores, 5 specialty stores, 5 catalogs for the product category, and consulted 6 experts in the field and the product was not found on the market.

25%—I looked in 3 department stores at the nearest mall, including a Sears, and asked a few of my 19-25 year old friends.

70%—I asked at the local Big K-Mart and the clerk there hadn't heard of anything like it.

Your solution works less than 98% of the time.

99%—I specialize in another field, and I haven't done any looking yet, but I've never seen it anywhere.

100%—The first store I went into told me I'd find it at another store and, sure enough, it was there!

2. You find a better product than yours on the market! Cheaper (or less expensive) is usually better to the buyer. Style might be a significant decider but it is only good for a design patent on an existing, preferably public domain, product. Breadth of applicability and quality of result are almost always better within 10-20% of the same price.

0%—After a thorough search no competitive products were found OR my invention equals or betters the competitors on breadth and quality but mine will be (I hope) significantly less expensive.

50%—Mine looks about the same difficulty from a manufacturing perspective as competitors and I'm not too sure what price I can get it made for.

70%—There is a product out there within about 20% above my probable price but with a very good feature that my product can't have.

You pursue your solution without serious consideration of alternative solutions.

99%—A major industry player has several solutions and brands that dominate the industry.

100%—There is a product with more capabilities and features and I'm sure I can't substantially under-price it.

3. You find 3 or more products generally no better or worse than yours on the market! If the field is as crowded as this, especially by larger, established players, you'll need a product with a significant "edge" to overcome your late start.

0%—This is not an issue because there are no competing products.

70%—It's a niche field and I think I can provide considerable added value (e.g., service, support) that will win customers away from competitors.

You refined your problem definition to one that is significantly narrower than your original statement.

99%—The field is full of very large players.

100%—You think that there are no competing products yet everyone you mention that to spontaneously busts out laughing.

4. Your solution works less than 90% of the time in solving the problem... You can get away with not ALWAYS solving the problem but only if buyers clearly recognize that the product is at the cutting edge of technology or they appreciate that significant nuances to the problem situations make a "universal" solution impractical.

0%—Your solution works 99-100% of the time and its simplicity assures buyers that it will continue to.

25%—Your solution works 90% of the time and the times it doesn't work it is clear that no completely generic solution is probable.

25%—Your solution works 90% of the time and it clearly is at the forefront of technology.

50%—Your solution works 70% of the time and it provides buyers with major savings over competing solutions.

Your solution is more complex to manufacture than the competition.

50%—Your solution works 70% of the time and the times it doesn't work it is clear that no completely generic solution is probable.

50%—Your solution works 70% of the time and it clearly is at the forefront of technology.

99%—Your solution works exceptionally well in s special niche but competing (including BFH) solutions generally get the job done in that niche too.

100%—Your solution works 50% of the time or less and it has no technical difficulty and provides no substantial savings.

5. You are unwilling to honestly evaluate your product against competing solutions. Duh! Where'd that truck come from? I wouldn't step into the street without first looking both ways but I'll leave you to watch out for yourself.

0%—The sum of your previous "STOP IF" percents is less than 5 and has been conscientiously determined.

Your market is too small to attract the attention of major firms. IS the ice firm enough for you?

50%—You believe you can succeed at anything if you just put your mind to it.

100%—Your invention doesn't need to be researched because the world will one day see that it is as definitive as the light bulb.

6. Your product could cause serious injury and you are not willing to accept that responsibility. Let's face it, nothing is risk free. The bathtub, stairs, and kitchen stove account for an alarming number of injuries and deaths each year. In 99.99% of the cases it wasn't the bathtub, stairs, or kitchen stove that was at fault—but the injuries are still real. People in-line roller skating wearing helmets, knee and elbow pads break their legs. Scissors and knives are inherently dangerous yet cause relatively few serious accidental injuries. The point is, you'll have to make your own peace here.

0%—You aren't underestimating the risks of your invention and you plan to provide quality instructions and warnings and carry appropriate liability insurance.

100%—You're scared-to-death someone will be accidentally hurt by your invention.

7. Your product or its manufacturing process could significantly degrade the environment. If you suspect there will be environmental damage that violates the law, you need to thoroughly research that up front. If any potential damage is use related but not currently illegal, you may want to evaluate the value of your profits to you and the probability your invention will be mandated (or even shamed) out of existence.

0%—Manufacturing requires no processes that are not well understood and appropriately "controlled" from an environmental perspective.

60%—Your invention will result in hundreds of millions of discarded aluminum pull-top tabs (or whatever).

Your solution is harder to use (and provides no significant benefit to trade that off against).

90%—There are some processes whose impact you are not yet sure of.

Whew, if STEP 0 is so hard, are you sure you still want to proceed with the even harder parts of being a successful inventor?

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